Rule Number One... Non-Violence

Looking at the Worth A look Post, you may ask yourself what does peak-oil have to do with Unpeople. Everything. The Secret of the Seven Sisters is a really good series on Al Jazeera that gives a through look at the long dark history of the oil business over the last hundred or so years. They are not displacing happy white people. Everywhere oil is found and developed, conflict quickly breaks out. The Middle East, Africa, and even here on North America. It takes many forms; from wars, terrorism, thuggery, to unfolding slow-violence in the southern USA. See Dahr Jamail, one of the last true investigative journalists for more on this. The script runs pretty much the same. A company finds oil, buys off the local elites, shafts the locals, and leaves crushing poverty in it's wake. Let's not forget about the tiny group of rich autocrats and their associated goons either. I try to look for information on what's going on, and it's there on the internet. Sadly, these types of stories seldom make into the mass / corporate media's 24 / 7 news cycles. When they do, there is rarely any depth beyond who was killed, kidnapped or tortured. Seldom if ever, does anyone ask "why." The on-going coverage of the Niger Delta area on the nightly news just touches the surface. They have more important things to do like selling denture cream or pharmaceuticals. Here is something more in depth from Amnesty International on the Niger delta conflict. Most people are blissfully unaware of the true cost of driving everywhere, me included. It is one thing to read about such horrors, but another to live through it day in and day out. For the average western schmo like me, it is almost incomprehensible. Still, I want to educate myself and others. As a conflict Resolution practitioner, I wonder how will this all play out? It does not look good. 

We are using a finite resource as if it can go on forever. I have a feeling John Michael Greer is right. There is no magic technological bullet that is going to save us from the FACT that oil will run out. We are not facing this fact. Rather, we ignore it. I don't know when this will happen but it cannot be but so far off. Now, I'm not talking about some twisted Mad Max-like apocalyptic fantasy. Leave that for the movies. No, it will unfold over time with ever increasing costs in blood and treasure. Remember money drives the train. As long as there is financial benefit, expect more of the same denial of reality. Wall Street Consultant? That alone does not make him wrong, but I suspect his ideas are tied one way or another to his pay. I'm not a geologist. I don't know when oil will run out. But I know it will. The Earth is not making more. No amount of fancy charts and rosy projections can change this. Fracking, tar sands and super-deep sea drilling tell me something is rotten in Denmark. It is not getting any easier. It can only get more difficult and costly with the passage of time. The longer we pretend business as usual is fine, the harder and more costly the transition to a post oil world will be. Our current system of casino capitalism does not allow for long-term solutions that may run contrary to today's bottom line or shareholder expectations.

It may be worth reminding you governments are no longer independent (not sure they ever were) keeping your best interests at heart. Even the so-called democracies, are bought, and paid for with corporate cash. Corporations, by design, have only one goal-- maximizing profits. Anything that gets in the way of that goal is crushed; regulations, climate change science, and even people. The drive for profit is short-term, and relentless. Anything or anyone that questions capitalism or the profit motive, faces ridicule here in the west, and death in too many other parts of the world.Think "dirty" hippies in the Occupy Wall Street Movement and consider our unilateral policy of "regime change" when someone dares to not go along with Uncle Sam (read oil interests) as manifestations of those who ask uncomfortable questions. No, better check out The Seahawks or Justin Bieber to stay safe. The fix is in. The game is rigged. I don't think the current system is fixable. The tiny hand full of politicians who do have everyday people's interest at heart are too few and far between. The funny or perhaps scary part is, we all know it. I write about it here on this blog. People may bring it up after a few too many drinks. I don't know of anyone who likes to think too deeply past their own time here on Earth. It's too damn scary. What do parents think? "Oh, it will work out some way or another. The kids will be fine." I hope there are not many that really feel this way. That's some sad shit. I've listened to people say, "It's harder to rock the boat with kids." Personally, I cannot think of a more important reason to rock the boat. Tip that fucker over, and teach the kids to swim. They'll thank you in the long run. Do more than bitch!

I write and try to educate both myself and others. I try to play the game as little as possible. I drive a small car that's really good on gas to and from work. It's close. My car barely has time to warm up in the winter. No, it is not enough. Far from it. But if we each take a step, the outcome can be different. We don't have to passively watch the nightmare of ever deepening and growing conflict over oil unfold. Make noise! Raise hell! We are not alone. If enough people take action, the path to a world with much little to no oil can be less violent. A lot of people will disagree with me on this one but I say don't vote. Voting is only an illusion of a democratic process as long as corporations fund the elections. The only way to beat a rigged game is stop playing. Who would listen to a congress that only could muster a 2% turn out? Everybody would know that's bullshit. I'd say there's an outside chance this can be done peacefully. Violence is a big part of the rigged game already in place. Keeping things peaceful also is a game changer. Even the darkest regimes have a tough time killing off peaceful demonstrators. The do from time to time but there is a high cost that goes along with it. Ask Mubarak. Oh! He's dead. No, just unavailable for comment. Governments do violence-- people don't. Change the game. Make government play by our rules. Rule number one- Non-Violence. Remember you're not alone!  Check out the following:

Occupy Wall St Yes, they are still around. 

Idle No More Follow the link. Check them out. 

Americans Against Fracking You got it! 

Greenpeace Hell Raisers. But for the right reasons.  

Amnesty International Human Rights. 

Green Party If You still want to vote, consider Green. I'll vote for them as well. 

Worth a look

Check out these two blogs...

Archdruid Report

and 

Club Orlov

Musical Chairs on the Titanic II

The tighter one tries to hold on to something, the more it slips away. The wealthiest among us will try to hold on to power and status as our oil dependent economy slows and morphs into a post oil economy. How bat things will get, I think it is a question of how fast we move into an economy without oil as the life-blood. The slower, the more painful it will be. There will be more and more wars fought over scarcity and it is not totally impossible we will again see the use of nuclear weapons by some set of fools who thing they can “win.” Safe clean water will also become an ever-scarcer resource. So will food. Hang on! Looks like the road ahead may be a bit bumpy. Thinking about masses of desperate hungry poor people and an ever shrinking group of elites trying to cling to their lifestyle at any cost is not all of that pleasant. I believe we are seeing the beginnings of this now and it looks like it will only grow worse. Worldwide, there is already the so-called bottom billion. It may need to be changed in time to the bottom two billion. It looks like the fun is also starting here in the USA as well.

With the recession / depression (what ever you want to call it) showing no signs of ending desperation will soon start to set in here in the USA as well. The unemployment money has so far been just enough to hold things together but it is ending for more and more people each week. All the Federal unemployment extensions end at the end of the year (give or take a week or two). Given the current batch of lunatics in Washington DC, I'm not looking for any renewals this time. They have no interest in addressing the real problem of no demand equals no jobs. Mind you the people that fund the circus also known as campaign season are doing quite well. But I think this is temporary. More and more people will stop playing the game either by choice or by becoming destitute.

As more and more people stop playing the game, the current system will grind to a halt. With no jobs, there will be less and less to pay the big finance companies on mortgages, credit cards and other schemes. People may soon start to realize that this is indeed a one party state and the meaninglessness of Democrat or Republican. When this happens, they will opt out of the political game as well. What would happen if only 10% or 11% of us voted? Who could claim a mandate? But the winning tool would try. It looks like we are going to have to pass through a pretty dark time. Blogs, like this one, that ask important and uncomfortable questions may disappear. The freedom rhetoric we are so fond of on race day will still be there but people like me who ask why are there terrorists in the first place, will be silenced. Somehow, asking why there are terrorists will become support for terrorists. But this too will pass with time. Lying leaders don’t last long. Adolph and Pol Pot now know this. What comes next may be pretty cool if you can live without some of the toys (made into necessities). Okay so the entry is still pretty dark.

If we deplete all of the oil much faster than current estimates much of the bad stuff mentioned will still happen but people will figure out how to live on their own much quicker. Instead of depending on lunatics in places like Washington DC, distant finance companies and long distance truckers, they will learn how to be truly independent. Local relations will become the only relations that matter. Imagine getting to know your neighbors! We will have to get to know our close neighbors and trade skills like building, security and food production. Today, this seems like living on another planet but civilizations rise and fall. The Incas, Aztecs, Romans and Egyptians all found out. But but our civilization is so much more advanced you may be thinking but plain old human shortcomings are still with us. Our arrogance in thinking our American way of doing things is the best and only way. Our pride in our powerful military that we think of as undefeatable that drains the treasury and indeed loses wars from time to time. We may want to re-think “military solution.” Our greed that drives us to take resources from others and says to hell with you, we have a lifestyle to up-keep. Our ignorance is bliss attitude that ignores the views (and basic rights) of other peoples as well as science. Global warming could give two shits if you think it is real or not. There is no way around this simple fact our civilization cannot last. What else happens to the arrogant, the proud, the greedy and the ignorant? They collapse! The greatest technology in the world is no match for basic human failings.

I do not buy into end times or similar non-sense. The changes from an oil based economy to what ever is next is not world ending. People will do what they do best and that is adapt and adjust. We don’t need 200 cable TV channels, imported food and the latest gizmos from slave labor factories in China to live well. We really do not have to have cars. I think we will be getting back to basics. All we need for a good life are the basics, food, shelter, clothes, love and to be useful.

Or I’m full of shit… Let me know.

Further reading...

Musical Chairs on the Titanic

You know if the peak oil crowd is right and we have passed or will pass in the near future peak oil production, the debit ceiling hysteria, blathering about Casey Anthony and similar nonsense that passes for news these days will soon be seen for the idiocy it really is. If you are unfamiliar with peak oil it is the notion that as some point we will have used more than half the oil the Earth can supply, the easy half. There’s no getting around it, the world we know runs on oil. As oil gets harder and more expensive to produce, what will happen? There is hope in “Green” energy but a good question to ask is can it possibly replace oil fast enough if at all? Here’s the problem as I see it. Can we maintain our rock and roll lifestyle here in the west (based on the notion of limitless economic growth) and expect it to simply go on forever? Keep in mind some other nations want to emulate us in living as if there is no tomorrow and it is cost free.

A part of the problem is that this is a slowly unfolding disaster taking decades, not days. We have a problem wrapping our head around large long-term problems and coping with them in a sane manner. In my book, the global warming deniers fall into this category. We muddy the waters with politics and do nothing all while watching polar icecaps melt and global temperature rise. We have become adept at bullshitting ourselves. It may NOT end with “they all lived happily ever after.” So… if the story has a different looking ending than the typical fairy tale, what would it be?

Civilizations like people that make the up go through life spans. When they fall, it is often not very pretty but life goes on. The Roman Empire did not last forever but had a nice long run. Once it fell, the so-called dark ages set in. Life became much more difficult but the wheels of time kept on rolling. The same is true of some of the great Indian civilizations in Central and South America. Now, we are nearing the collapse of the Great American Empire. Don’t worry, no doomsday predictions here, I’ll leave that to the religious whackos. So what will follow? We may be in for some major changes as we deplete our natural resources. Let’s consider class, culture and a little economics.

Looking at it as I often do through a class perspective, life could get very weird very fast. Today’s powerful are no different than the powerful who came before. People have done some crazy shit to maintain “control”. Pol Pot, Hitler and Idi Amin are just a few recent classic examples of the lengths people will to maintain power over others. Check out Gaddafi in Libya and Assad in Syria as of this writing. There are less stark examples like white southerners resisting the Civil Rights Movement in the 1960’s. Some resorted to extreme violence to keep the status quo. Large corporations are subtler but behave similarly. Any threat to the bottom line is met with fierce resistance, such as regulation. Slow violence comes to mind. As poisons seep into the environment causing cancer rates to soar in places like Louisiana here in the United States and the tar sands area of Alberta, Canada; they deny any correlation and buy off the politicians to keep the status quo. Keep in mind we are busy mastering the dark arts of violent population control in places like Baghdad. Sooner or later, people will stop believing the propaganda from Washington via the media about the American Dream and our better days still being ahead of us. Less subtle means of control learned elsewhere can be brought home. As the economy contracts the powerful will likely act as they always do and the slow violence may soon morph into direct violence. We’ve seen this already on a relatively small scale in post Katrina New Orleans. Private security personnel protecting assets of the wealthy who are undeterred from shooting first and asking questions later on if at all. As long as there are television and radio look for the propaganda apparatus to go into hyper-drive. State sponsored killings of citizens will become a “…necessary response to terrorists, looters, hooligans, gangs and other deviants who are a threat to our way of life.”

Consider Baghdad as a nee model for your hometown. At the top, there’s the Green Zone. This is the most secure area in the city and also happens to be where the people who run things live. In the Green Zone there is plenty to eat, good medical care and a steady supply of electricity. The rest of the city is known as the Red Zone or no go zone. This is a land full of walls, check points, and general uneasiness. Medical care is sporadic to non-existent as well as electricity. The power here is in the hands of gangs and warlords. Be very careful what you say on that cell phone, landline and Internet. There are ears everywhere and if they hear the wrong thing, you could wind up in detention or the morgue. Satisfying basic needs like safety and security are on an hour-to-hour basis. Remember, Iraq is now a democratic society! To think or say otherwise are dangerous.

Sure I’ve lost my marbles you may be thinking if you have read this far! Also ask yourself how long is it before the predators now flying the US Mexican border area (and some of our larger cities) are armed? The illusion of freedom we all cherish so much now will continue in the form of elections void of real choices and dissenters quietly extinguished via marginalization and other means. But there is good news! If we do find ourselves living in such a society in the not so distant future, keep in mind it cannot last. If we cannot find an alternative way to power our industrial civilization what will a post-industrial society look like? If we can manage to get through the transition period without nuking the planet or completely poisoning the environment, perhaps life will be not so bad.

Part II will be up shortly. It gets better and not quite so damn dark!

For further reading check out the following:

http://www.feralscholar.org/blog/

http://thearchdruidreport.blogspot.com/

http://cluborlov.blogspot.com/