Storm Warning- Thoughts on July 13 And What May Be Next...

 

The event in Pennsylvania on July 13th was one more act of political violence in a country with a long history of such events. There have been others before now; union busting, beatings, assassinations and one Civil War so far.  It is a pretty safe bet there will be more political violence between now and November and even beyond. Why?  I'm sure you can find all kinds of commentary on why this is happening. Let me give you my most simplistic and direct answer. Change. We as a country,  hell, the rest of the world,  are staring into the faces of a flood of complex, unclear and potentially civilization-ending changes. Climate Change, Artificial Intelligence, a growing number of nuclear armed powers and changing demographics are reshaping everything. Most people don't react well to changes. They are scary. Many want to retreat into a mythological past where life was more simple, the footing more solid and everything was clear. Our minds remember the good things and block out most of the bad. That's how we get the notion of the “good old days.” I'm not sure how good they were, but I know they are gone forever, fading further and further into the past. So what's coming next?

I don't know. That's a phrase I'm trying to get more comfortable with. In this so-called information age, we want answers and we want them yesterday. It is important to slow down and not get caught up in the endless hours and hours of mostly useless speculation. Quite often, first hand eyewitness accounts are proven to be wrong. What passes for photographic evidence is subject to interpretation as well. That interpretation takes time. Grand conspiracies draw more eyes than a simple oversight. I tend to lean toward the simplest explanation being the best explanation. After such a huge event,  I understand it may be days or longer before we get a clear picture of what happened, how it happened and why it happened. I also realize some of my questions may never be answered. Being patient today is a lost art. In the days, weeks and months ahead,  I implore you to remember our media and entertainment industries are profit driven. I think truth comes out eventually but only after a lot of hyperbole, bloviating from self-appointed opinion shapers and repetition of lies to try and make them true somehow. 

When you see something that just seems plain nuts or makes your blood boil, step down and step back. As Beau says, "Get informed, not inflamed.” If a news item seems particularly upsetting, you would do well to remember that's the intent. Check other sources, if you're reading this you have access to news outlets from literally all over the world. How are others reporting on the same event? News is a human endeavor, subject to errors and biases. If you really want to understand a story, look at it from several different sources. Most importantly, be patient.

All storms pass and this one is no exception. Personally,  I view threats of violence as a sign of great weakness. These intimidation tactics only work if we let  them.  Whatever you do, don't give into fear of your neighbor, the stranger next to you in line or anyone who seems different. Rather, recognize those who stoke fear and try to benefit from it, tune out and turn off. I think we are going to be okay but the pathway to the new normal, whatever that turns out to be, will be ugly and bumpy. Make space in your head for ambiguity, uncertainty and patience. We are all fighting battles we tell no one about. So be gentle with your neighbors, even those you disagree with. This too will pass, friends. 

"I'm Ridding with Biden" He's got this.

 

Biden has one bad debate in June, months and months before the election, and many on the left seem to be losing their damn minds! Hysterical conniptions abound,  Biden must bow out, he's too old, he's not fit for office and on and on and on sat on endless repeat.  I call BULLSHIT.  Yeah, his debate performance was poor, So what? I don't think that means the other guy, spewing lies the whole time, gets a win by default.  I'm sorry, but nothing Trump can say or do will make me want to vote for him. His only interest in the presidency is to stay out of jail, full stop. Oh, and an orgy of revenge on anyone who may have wronged the Donald in the past  is also on the agenda.  He has no plans on how to deal with climate change other than calling it a hoax.  That alone is enough for me not to vote for him. To deny climate change in 2024 is the height of insanity. But wait there's more! Trump has no plans to address the skyrocketing costs of housing and healthcare. He has little if any understanding of geopolitics, unless you consider  brown-nosing the world's worst dictators acceptable foreign policy. Trump offers nothing that would actually help the members of his cult-like base other than hurting those they don't like. If the Republicans were stupid enough to make him their nominee for 2024, I think it guarantees yet another loss. Here are five reasons why:

1. The overturning of Roe v Wade by itself has turned half our population against Trump and his band of enabling goons. Taking away people's rights is not exactly going to get you points in a popularity contest. It's more than just abortion, they want to take away access to contraception in general. When put to a vote, even in deep red states, people vote to protect reproductive rights and freedoms. A Republican win in November will mean it's only a matter of time before there's a nationwide abortion ban. Our current insane Supreme Court should not be trying to reverse rights that have already been fought for and won. I think women will come out to vote in unprecedented numbers against the Republican Party.
   
   

2. Another surefire losing strategy the Republicans have is climate change denial in 2024. Pretending a problem does not exist does nothing to resolve it, much less make it go away. We are living through climate change now! Numerous fires, floods, extreme heat waves and a category 5 hurricane in June are all neon flashing warning signs of things to come. Electric cars may not be the answer but at least they are a small attempt to address the issue. Personally,  I think our only chance to avoid climate-induced catastrophes is a complete rethink on our relationship to nature but that's for another time. Addressing climate change is important to younger voters. They know we are out of time. There's another issue young voters are interested in.
   
   

3. Gun control!  Republican notions of thoughts and prayers, arm the teachers (an absolute absurdity) and good guys with guns stopping bad guys with guns (yes, another absurdity) do nothing to address our national epidemic of mass shootings, including mass school shootings. In short, they will do anything to avoid solving the problem. Gun makers and ammunition manufacturers have completely bought off the Republican Party. Republicans hide behind a mythological reverence for the Second Amendment putting the  unmitigated right to own deadly firearms above the lives of our students and fellow citizens. I mean really, who in the hell needs an AK-47 or AR-15 to defend their home? You guessed it, another absurdity! I think this issue will bring numerous young people to the polls this November.
   
   

4. Trump's inability to attract so-called independent voters will also lead to his defeat. Let's remember Trump doesn't even have all of the Republican Party. 34 felony convictions are not going to win over independent-minded voters. Trump's incessant whining about the 2020 election also does little to attract new voters. His rabid base  will certainly come out to vote for him but alone they are nowhere near enough. Few people really want to live in a fascist state with Christian window dressing. (See Project 2025) I think Trump knows this and seeks a path to the White House via the House of Representatives and or the Supreme Court. And speaking of the Supreme Court.
   
   

5.  The horrible presidential immunity ruling handed down on July 1st 2024 will be another nail in the coffin of Trump and Trumpism. If allowed to stand indefinitely, this obliterates the Constitution.  I thought we had resolved the notion of rulers not being above the law almost a thousand years ago via the Magna Carta. It seems our Supreme Court has other ideas. Great! Now we get to argue over what constitutes official acts and duties of the president. So it seems paying off pornstars, ignoring deadly viruses and ordering the disappearances of political rivals are now little more than presidential duties or acts. The current Supreme Court is far more radical than most Americans want. The only way to change it is to have someone who will appoint non-radical right members to the bench. We have got to have a more balanced Supreme Court.
   
   

   Let's face it, Biden is weak despite his numerous successes,  The American Rescue Plan,  The Chips Act,  Build Back Better, a $1.2 Trillion Dollar Infrastructure Bill and a reinvigorated NATO. His perceived weakness I think comes from the fact he doesn't look good on TV. He comes across as old and slow.  We would do well to remember the presidency is a branch of government staffed by numerous people. Nobody can be an expert in all areas. Biden surrounds himself with qualified experts, not lackeys and sycophants. Sure, he's slower than he was 20 or 30 years ago but overall I think his judgment is still sound. That does not mean I agree with every decision he's made, mainly around Israel and Gaza. I shudder to think what a second Trump term would mean for that part of the world. A second Trump term  would be an unmitigated disaster here at home as well as for the rest of the world. Oh, here are a few more reasons I don't think it will happen.

6. Turning over the RNC to unqualified family members who then vacuum up most of the money to cover Trump's ever growing mountain of legal bills hurts Republicans’ chances to retake The House and Senate. Without which they cannot enact the radical rights wet dream known as Project 2025.

7. A king operating above the law overseeing America as an Evangelical Christian Nation is a hard pass for most of us. The lunatics who want to bring this about think they can control Trump. Now I ask you, when has this ever worked out? It's the Democrats job to let the world know about Project 2025 and how Trump ties into it.
   
   Despite everything I've said here Democrats and those who lean further left like me, need to think of this as the final Super Bowl and our team is down 28 to 14 in the fourth quarter. Yes, electoral politics feels lame and the two major parties have too many similarities to matter. I think there used to be an element of truth to this when we were talking about Democrats and Republicans. That's no longer the case. Under Trump, the Republican Party has gone fascist with an unhealthy mix of Evangelical Christianity thrown in. That's not a mix I want to contemplate nor a country I want to live in. We cannot get this one wrong.

P. S. If Trump somehow does win, the sun will still rise,  the Earth will still spin and we will resist…  

Conflicts Around The World, June 2024

 

The war in Ukraine, Israel's invasion of Gaza and China's saber rattling around Taiwan are covered daily in the Press here in the USA. There are a number of other deeply disturbing and horrific conflicts going on around the world as we speak that get little media attention. A simple Google search quickly produced the list below. There are numerous other conflicts as well. Let's keep them in mind as our government and media tends to focus on the three listed above while pretty much ignoring the rest. 

Civil War in Sudan

The civil war in Myanmar: No end in sight

Mexico’s Long War: Drugs, Crime, and the Cartels

UN Haiti chief warns of 'catastrophic' impact of gang war displacements

DRC conflict: Why is fighting intensifying and can it threaten regional stability?

American Unpeople

 The Working Poor / The Price of The American Dream

This is a documentary about the working poor in America. It is almost an hour long. The hourly rate may vary from state to state. (Some states are far more expensive than others.)  Here in North Carolina, I think of the people earning anywhere from minimum wage up to around $20 per hour when I think of the working poor. I base my numbers on the 20 years I worked for the Employment Security Commission of North Carolina. These are people who truly live paycheck to paycheck. Even a small disruption can cause a $20 crisis. 

The documentary follows a worker in fast food customer service, Germania, a construction laborer, Joe, and some high skilled union workers who found themselves facing a permanent layoff. I think it does a pretty good job of depicting their struggles. but what compelled me to write today is all they left out. Germania and Joe are both homeless on opposite sides of the country. Not only that, they have families to support. Joe is married and has a little daughter. Germania  has several children and a relative to support.  We will come to the union workers later.

Germania  had a decent paying job  in an unnamed northern state but nonetheless decided to move to Florida.  The only reason given in the documentary is that she wanted a “new start.” The father of her children is not really mentioned and plays no part in their lives it seems. Perhaps she was fleeing a domestic violence situation,  living in a bad area  or something else?  I am not here to judge why she left.  I'm more interested in the other problems she faces. I see several. At only 25 she is already obese  and a smoker.  If nothing changes, she may be looking at a myriad of related health problems, things such as heart disease, a higher risk for strokes and different types of cancer. Now, add to this our lovely for profit healthcare system. She works 2 to 3 different jobs, none of which are likely to provide decent healthcare insurance coverage.  Her children are also overweight. I don't say this to be mean or judgmental but to remind everyone of the relationship between poverty and obesity.  I think Germania  is truly doing the best she can.  She is stuck on a metaphorical hamster wheel. Between her jobs and caring for her children, she has little time to look for a better job much less get some kind of retraining for higher paying work.  A few other things I think the documentary left out  are the risks associated with living in cheap motels  and subsidized apartments,  the potential for violent crime and exposure to illicit drugs. Let's also not forget poorer performing schools and lack of access to good daycare  for her children. If things are left unchanged, I think it's possible the cycle will just repeat.  Joe finds himself in a similar situation in Seattle, Washington.

The documentary does not give us a good idea of Joe's marketable skill sets.  I may be wrong but I assume he is more of a cleanup and laborer type then a highly skilled carpenter or mason.  His wife has similar skills  to Germania but is also unable to find any work. They have a small daughter who is just beginning to walk. They find themselves living in a small tent city and there is no explanation given for how they pay for food. I would assume it's charity. They both could use training for a better job. This is still very difficult even if the training is paid for. They still have to pay for food as well as daycare for their daughter. The only reason given for their relocation from California to Washington State  is seeking better opportunities. Joe's physical work has kept him from becoming obese.  Both his wife and daughter are overweight. Again, I don't see this to be mean or judgmental but to point it out as a consequence of deep poverty. Neither seems to have a drug problem and there is no mention of a criminal background which can both be large barriers to employment.  However, not having a stable address to put on an application is seen by many employers as a huge red flag. Based on the documentary, I assume neither one has a driver's license. That's another barrier to employment. Again, a possible solution is job retraining but they still have to pay for housing, food and other living expenses while going through said training. What about the skilled workers facing a permanent layoff?

The last segment of our documentary follows several skilled union workers in Pennsylvania  who are facing permanent layoffs  from well-paying jobs. I don't mean to be harsh but multinational conglomerations are not noted for caring about their workers. These massive corporations are legally bound to maximize profits for their shareholders. If cutting labor costs increases profits, that's what they will do. I think it's safe to assume there are no other employers in their area who need these skill sets.  Unlike Joe and Germania,  The union workers may have a little time for a job retraining via their severance. The question is, training for what? Without  similar wages they too will fall out of the middle class. Maybe there is another well paying employer in the area who can take them on with just a little retraining?

What are some possible answers?

One answer is a minimum wage that actually keeps up with what it costs to live. Since this documentary was made a few years ago, wages have gone up some. Also, the cost of living has gone up. one thing to keep in mind is the baby boomer generation is in the process of retiring out of the workforce. Soon there will be more jobs than there are people to fill them. This should help push wages up even more. Job retraining is great but there needs to be a mechanism for helping people cover basic living expenses while they are being retrained. Another idea I would like to hear more about is guaranteed employment.  Instead of collecting unemployment checks, the government becomes the employer of last resort. They also have to pay enough so people can live in a safe and healthy environment. Maybe in some cases tie this into employment training.

 Employers need to also do their part.  creating an entire underclass not only leads to people who cannot afford your products but to an unstable society which is also very bad for business.  companies need to face a cost or laying off high skilled workers only to increase profits.  Maybe one can justify laying people off in a major downturn to keep the company afloat but that's a debate on a case by case basis. Companies would do well to remember how expensive high turnover can be.  Paying people well can indeed help the bottom line grow.

 We as individuals also have a role to play. I think the best way to stay out of poverty is to have high demand, high paying, marketable skills.  It's no longer as simple as going and getting “the right degree.”  We live in a time of rapid change. So the best thing to do is always be learning and paying close attention to what's going on in the economy around us.  Financial literacy, economics and where to get new skills training should all be taught in high school.  Of course it's okay to want a new start or seek better opportunities elsewhere but please do the homework that goes with  these ideas.  use the internet and find out what really is available in the place you want to go as well as pay rates and the cost of living. Yes, it's fun to entertain the idea of up and leaving but be smart about it.