Pending War in Ukraine?

 

So President Putin's thinking of invading Ukraine? Might shore up some poll numbers, create a buffer against NATO and maybe, if he's really lucky, make Russia great again! He's a smart dude and should know well wars are easy to start while ending them the way you want is a whole other matter. Russia invades and Ukraine's armed forces simply melt away into the countryside. Then Russia faces a pretty well-armed insurgency for as long as they hang around. Everyone's favorite uncle, Uncle Sam, will be happy to help the insurgency. Does Russia want Afghanistan 2.0? Ukraine would be different in ways even the best strategists cannot foresee. Wars take on a life of their own and rarely, if ever, end the way leaders want them too. Most often, they just lay the groundwork for the next war.   

If a leader has a justifiable, achievable and clear goal, military solutions can sometimes seem to work. Consider Gulf War I. Get Iraq out of Kuwait. That's a simple one sentence goal. The US wrapped up the ground war in a matter of days. Iraq was out of Kuwait but things did not end well. Saddam was able to absorb the defeat yet hang on to power via brutal and bloody crackdowns. An undeclared air war dragged on for years and years. And then we had a second Gulf War to get rid of Saddam (and his invisible WMD program) but left Iraq pretty much a failed state giving rise to Al Qaeda in Iraq and ISIS. And President Putin seems to think another war may be a good idea? Invading another country just to make them a buffer is simply unjust. Creating a failed state right on your own door-step is quite a long way from having a close ally to fight against another military alliance. There is no clear way around the first two problems. And the goal of an invasion is unclear. What can President Putin expect? 

Pretty much world condemnation will befall Russia if they go ahead with an invasion. The list not on the condemnation bandwagon is short, very short. China? North Korea? Cuba? And Putin's new pet country, Belarus perhaps. Almost everyone else likes the idea of nations having autonomy and using a global legal framework to peacefully resolve conflicts. I know the USA has a bad track record of unjust wars as well. I've criticized them aplenty for their many shortcomings and I'm sure I will again in the near future. This is about one country headed by a strongman-type taking by force of arms a weaker country simply because they / he can if the world lets this happen. I'm not a sanctions fan but I'm sure they will hurt Russia more than anyone else. I'm not a fan because it will hurt average Russian people more than those making the poor decisions at the top. It can lead to destabilization and possibly a much bigger mess not far down the road. A shiny, new war, state violence and repression are not paths to stability.     

If Putin and Russia want Ukraine as another partner to face NATO, then make them a better deal. Maybe the Russians could withdraw their forces occupying Crimea, hook Ukraine up with some cheaper oil and natural gas and throw in some better weapons for Ukraine's military? Use diplomatic means to get them on your side and avoid a costly and unpredictable war.