I learned something during my twenty years working in a state unemployment office, if you are the one who's unemployed, the economy is never doing good. For a leading economic indicator, open your wallet. I think this how we truly evaluate the economy, our own direct, lived experience. It is also how we vote. Wallet's full, keep the current group of clowns. Empty wallet? Toss 'em out! Now there's an extra ingredient, the pandemic we are trying to get out of. It's turning into what seems like a long slog. Turn on the news and the biggest economic news is the growing inflation. I think it's high demand vs. less supply and will smooth out over time as hopefully covid fades. But economics is not my field of study. I doubt our major media outlets are sitting around thinking of good news stories they can report on (they don't sell). It is always important to keep in mind what they are NOT telling us while focusing our attention on one thing. The economy is not all doom and gloom.
Unemployment has dropped tremendously in the last year or so. According to this article, it is at a 50 year low. I take official unemployment measures with a healthy dose of salt. There are problems with unemployment numbers like not counting the underemployed or those who have just stopped looking for work. The official unemployment rate is not a perfect number but it is consistent over time. It is an indicator of how things are going. Healthcare, business services, and construction are all experiencing strong growth and so are hospitality and of course, trucking. Something else is happening, something good.
Wages are going up. Those complaining about lazy workers have forgotten a basic principal of capitalism, supply and demand. Workers finally have just a little power. They are no longer going back into demeaning, demoralizing and dehumanizing work that does not even pay their bills for cheap. We are seeing a reawakening labor movement as well. Walkouts, strikes and union drives are becoming more and more common. There is more at stake than just better pay. Employees want better conditions, better schedules and better benefits. Bluejean Friday will no longer cut it. Employers have to do better. A "worker shortage" means you have to pay more. It's really that simple. Now, the big question is will the gains be offset by inflation? How are other economic indicators looking?
Well, the stock market is up, way up. Alone, this does not give much indication of average people's day to day experience in the lived economy. It seemed to be the only indicator Trump cared about and it is a measure. GDP growth was up last year and should continue to rise. It looks like corporate profits are rising to insane levels! New car sales are down due to chip shortages and lingering supply chain issues. The demand is there but the cars are not. The housing market is in a massive boom cycle right now. So the economic news is far from all bad. Does that mean everything is perfect? No.
Income inequality is still growing out of control. There is a sizable authoritarian movement growing here and abroad that leads nowhere we want to be. The problem of nuclear weapons is lurking not far below the surface. And then there's climate change. It MAY not be as bad as we think but that's for next time. 2022 will be anything but boring!
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