Israel's Can of Worms

According to Benjamin Netanyahu Iran has been on the verge of a nuclear bomb for the last 20 years. He came to Trump, once again wanting the US to do his bidding. Initially, Trump took a hard pass. In the last year or so Israel has done much to weaken Iran's proxies, Hezbollah and Hamas. They have also weakened Iran's air defenses. The time to strike for Israel looks good on paper. Israel is also facing world-wide condemnation over their ongoing campaign in Gaza (Except the US government). This could be a great time for a splendid little war! It takes the heat off Netanyahu. Iran is weaker now. Trump could also use the distraction. His poll numbers are sinking into the toilet.

I think it's entirely possible this whole thing is just a ruse to keep Netanyahu in power longer. Anyone who's been in charge over 25 years, I have trouble seeing as a Democratic leader. There are allegations of corruption and who knows what else out there swirling around thus far unaddressed. Netanyahu can continue to repeat any criticism of Israel is an attack on all Jews. This is something the US government happily goes along with. It gives Trump more freedom to crush anyone who disagrees with him.  First Amendment rights apparently end when questioning Israel. It is important to keep in mind wars are highly, highly unpredictable. 

There's no denying Iran is in a weaker state now. Anyone who thinks air power alone (including from the US) can end Iran's nuclear program is delusional. Sure, it could be slowed down but not ended. Air power alone has never won a war.  Iran's nuclear program is widely dispersed all over the country and well defended on the ground. Iran is much bigger than Iraq and much more militarized. A land  invasion would be a nightmare with no ending. By the time we decide to leave Iran will be another failed state with no central government. Both the US and Israel would also come out much weaker.  Israel has opened a can of worms she cannot close. What will Trump do?

 I sincerely hope he will keep us out of this mess  or at least not get us any more mired down than we already are. Unfortunately for my sentiment, he too could benefit from a splendid little war. Failing policies and dropping poll numbers are good calls for a distraction. That's not to mention Trump’s fourth grade level understanding of geopolitics. The old dude is clearly in way over his head. He has also gotten rid of anyone who does really understand how the world works. This is one case where I hope the taco analogy (Trump Always Chickens Out) holds true. If he does do the right thing, it will just be a good accident. Sadly, I feel he is the first president who truly does not give a shit about the US, much less anywhere else in the world. He cares only for his ego and bank account. 

This is already a huge volatile mess with a number of unpredictable outcomes.  The US involved will only make it worse. Lately it seems those who like to start wars have not read their history books. Wars never turn out  the way those who started them envision. There is no reason to believe this case will be any different. It's going to get messy and bumpy from here on.