When will The Donald stop sucking up so much airtime?
I usually try to avoid writing about Donald Trump. I think he gets entirely too much airtime as it is. He's the only ex-president who seems to get more media attention than the actual president. There was just no way he could have the common courtesy to fade into obscurity. He has to be in the media spotlight, even if it's for the wrong reasons. Trump 's ego cannot let him simply fade from TV, smartphone and computer screens everywhere. I never in my wildest dreams could have imagined a Republican front runner having two impeachments and now two indictments (with more to come) probably being the nominee for president. No one else can get the nomination without the MAGA mob. Now the problem for Republicans is they cannot win with only the MAGA mob. The good old boy, Lindsey Graham, is being proven right every day. He tried to warn the Republicans Trump would destroy their party. It looks like he is destined to sink any hopes of a Republican retaking the White House in 2024. I know a lot can happen between now and then but stick with me a minute.
The Republican Math Problem.
Trump 's MAGA base is not growing and I would argue after a million plus COVID deaths, it is even smaller than before. There are also those who have over time decided to move on from the Donald. So this leaves him with a hard-core group of followers that make up well under 30% of the electorate. Maybe somewhere there are some Democrats that have decided they hate Biden, but hate him bad enough to vote for Trump? I find that highly unlikely and surely not enough to make a difference. Trump has also lost the independent voters as well as a significant number of of Republican voters. If we have free and fair elections, the math is against Trump period. That's not even considering all the new voters who are going to come out of the woodwork in the wake of Row V Wade being overturned. Overall, the Republican Party seems to be doing all it can to alienate young voters. Everything from climate change denial, student loan forgiveness And the insane “culture wars” turn off young voters. Oh, and don't forget their latest crusade against free lunches for school kids! What happens if we fail to vote?
What Would Trump 2.0 Look Like.
Let's say for arguments sake somehow, someway Trump finagles his way back into the White House in 2024. Yes it may be improbable but not impossible. What would Trump 2.0 look like? In one word- utter chaos! Okay it was two words. From what I can tell, he only wants the White House for two reasons. One, he thinks it will keep him out of jail. Two, it's a great way to rake in the cash. Well, maybe three reasons. The third reason is a White House win would boost his already overinflated ego. Trump has little to no respect for the rule of law, Nor does not care about institutional norms and has no understanding of the Constitution. So what we would get is a porn fest of revenge. He would “go after anyone that wronged him” from the 2020 election to the present day. Internationally, he would be an unmitigated disaster for Ukraine, NATO and international rule of law. Trump Would quickly find his knee pads for another trip to Moscow. There's nothing he loves more than fellow autocrats. I'm sure another North Korea visit would also be in order. As bad as these things are, they pale in comparison to the next global crisis with Trump in charge of the United States. The effects of climate change are only going to get worse. COVID-19 was not the last pandemic we will face. There is the ever-present danger of more and more states becoming nuclear armed states. Rather than lead to a crisis, Trump we'll talk about how smart he is and make the narrative all about himself while the crisis spins further and further out of control. And if he lives another four years? What would an election in 2028 look like? Would there even be an election in 2028? Fortunately, I think most of the rest of the country understands what an utter disaster a second Trump term would be. That's good news for the Democrats, right?
The Democrats Become Autocrats?
I always felt Hillary's dreadful campaign of 2016 is what gave us Trump in the first place. Her only message seemed to be “I'm not Trump.” She took a win for granted and we all saw the result. Neither candidate from 2016 offered any kind of view of what they wanted to accomplish as president. Hillary Clinton thought she had a walkover and she should have. I think she just got too complacent. I don't think Biden will make the same mistake, nor will the American people. If this is true that's great for Democrats, right? No, having effectively one party rule is good for no one. Over the years we have seen the effects of so-called corporate Democrats, basically just Republicans, hold the culture war nonsense. I don't like the Republican Party, at least in their current form. To have a democracy, we need a minimum of two parties. I think the reality is we need far more than two parties, 3, 5 or even six parties.
More Than Two Parties Please!
If you take away the culture wars, there is too much agreement between Republicans and Democrats. They both are a little too quick to call for a “military solution” when diplomacy maybe a better option. They are both all in for big business and do their bidding at our expense. Sure, today the Republicans are objectively worse but a Democratic Party with no real opposition would soon also become autocratic and deeply corrupt. We need the Republican Party to find a modicum of sanity. More than that, I think we need multiple parties. There are over 330 million Americans with almost limitless different views on how the country should be governed. The two mainstream parties reflect just a tiny sliver of our views. A big problem is they don't want competition so it's very hard for smaller parties like the Greens or Libertarians to grow. And I have totally left out the biggest problem in our politics- a flood of anonymous cash!
Trump Will not live forever. Will somebody be able to take over the MAGA mob after he is gone? I do think our authoritarian streak will outlive Trump. Over the next few election cycles, those of us who actually want a free and functioning democracy have to continue to play defense. This may lead to a string of mediocre Democrats finding their way into office. But demographics favors those who want to see real progress on things like climate change, social justice and creating a system that works for all of us, not just those at the top. Even a Trump second term cannot stop this but it can slow it down greatly.
Disclaimer
This is American politics. Nothing is certain. We have a long way to go until the 2024 election. Everything can change on a dime. What if something happens to Biden? Can the conflict in Ukraine grow? Will China invade Twain? We live in a world of endless “what-ifs.” I’ll try to remember to check back in on this topic around six months from now and after next year’s election cycle. All I can say at this point is I don’t see a Trump 2.0 happening in a White House near you (or me).
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