Fog of War

So we find ourselves a month into the war in Ukraine. Russia has faltered badly on the battlefield (both ground and air) and in the propaganda war. Look at the two leaders Zelenskyy and Putin. Ask yourself who would you rather have a beer with; Putin alone at an absurdly long table or Zelenskyy in a tee shirt surrounded by his troops? I know who I'd rather meet. It's the guy who will never ever have to buy a drink again if he survives the conflict. Putin appears pale, ashen and isolated (not to mention old). Lost in an imaginary world, detached from reality he vilifies and blames others for problems he, himself, had created. Sounds like an ex-president here. Meanwhile, Zelenskyy may look tired but he is 100% engaged with the numerous problems he faces. While he attracts volunteers from the world over, Putin is deploying mercies and attracting sanctions. It is hard to beat others on their own land fighting for their property, families and neighbors. We have seen this over and over.  

I guess Putin's age is catching up. He lost his patience and did something rash. He ordered an invasion his military was simply not up to. They don't have enough troops to subdue much less occupy the country. All Putin had to do was look at US wars since 9/11. We crushed Saddam's forces and easily removed the Taliban from power. But still effectively lost both wars to effective, indigenous insurgencies. All they had to do was keep fighting until we decided to just go home. 8 trillion and 900,000+ dead earned us two failed states. loss of any moral high ground we may have has right after 9/11 and less freedom (and security) here at home. Putin could have reviewed his own nation's experience in Afghanistan. It looked somewhat similar to ours. Futility. I cannot help but cringe a little every time an American crows about "rule of law." Now it is Russia's turn.

Instead of actual support on the world stage, the best Russia can get is a few countries abstaining on a vote of condemnation and even fewer voting against. The once vaunted Russian military looks more like a bad clown show the longer this goes on. Russia will soon have to shut down their oil and gas fields because there are very few remaining buyers. Western companies are leaving in droves (a few still hanging around for now) along with Russian citizens who have the means to get out. Yeah, Putin has always been a strong gangster type of ruler but he's made a career ending miscalculation.What companies will return as long as he's still in power? When will the best and brightest ever return? After he's gone, depending on who's next. Other places have gas an oil. New supplies will be developed and sold. Nobody will want to do business in Putin's Russia. He can no longer hide his brutality, criminality and baseless lies.            

There is no way to know how or when this war ends. That's the "fog of war." Leaders fail to learn wars are easy as hell to start but almost impossible to end on the terms they want. Here on 3.24.20222, there seems little chance this ends well for either Russia or Ukraine. It will take years to undo Putin's damage. Russia's economy is getting smashed and her military looks like an over-armed mob, not a professional fighting force. Ukraine will come out of this a different country than on 2.23.2022. The best case is rebuilding stronger that will take time. That's not easy. The worse case, she falls into a failed state complete with heavily armed warlords and lawlessness. We must not let that happen. Let's work for a better Ukraine after the war.