Russian Invasion

Some ramblings...

Why, Russia? Why? I cannot see whatever Putin sees. Ukraine is not a threat and a ways off from NATO consideration. Even as a NATO member, Ukraine is not a threat to a nation with over 6,000+ nukes. Nah, it's not about that, never was. Putin cannot stand having a growing democracy on his southern border. A nation run by autocrats and oligarchs sucks. (Please take notes America.) Russians seeing happy people in a land of basic freedoms and growing opportunities might begin to ask their own government uncomfortable questions. So in Putin's mind turning Russia into a pariah state shunned by everyone but China is worth clinging to power. Remember the tighter you hold on, the faster power slips away. Unleashing a war, with all the unknown unknowns, is a very risky bet indeed. 

Wars take on a life of their own and no one can control the outcome (USA- Vietnam, Afghanistan, Iraq and countless other small missteps and miss-adventures). Whoever. told Putin the Ukrainians would simply roll over and surrender lied to him. Whoever said it would weaken NATO also lied. And whoever told Putin Biden would give him a pass, like our oligarch, Trump, also lied. Oh, about the Donald. 

If Trump had successfully stolen the 2020 election, this invasion would have happened before now. If I may borrow from LBJ, Putin had Trump's pecker in his pocket. Shady business deals, Trump being simply star-struck by Putin or a gaggle of whores; Putin has something on Trump and thus control of Trump. Let's not forget Trump wanted the US out of NATO and never ever challenged Putin on anything. The average 8th Grader has more understanding of geopolitics than the Donald. So to say Trump would have stopped this invasion is... laughable. Trump's gone now, get over it. 

Now Biden has to find an endgame short of thermonuclear war. It is very early in the conflict but it looks like there will be no quick victory for Russia. The Russians can ill afford we we Americans call a quagmire. It may cost Putin his bleak, klepto regime. Who knows what horrors await afterward. The longer this goes on, the more costly the recovery will be for all of us. The longer it goes on, the higher the risk of it spreading. And putting your nuclear forces on "HIGH ALEART" only makes you look weaker, Putin. Your new friends, the Chinese, are not impressed so far.