And after the Nation State?

 

So what will come after the nation-states (countries) we know today? How we organize ourselves changes over time, with a tendency to further complexity. Global trade, communications, and alliances shift with time. I see three possibilities, given my limited view, knowledge and built in biasses. 

1. A Strongman / Woman government married to conglomerate power, Neofascism.

2. We become more democratic via more political parties.

3. Local Local and Local depending on climate change severity or other calamities.

I'm in the US so I'm thinking mostly about here. Where are we now? The real power rests with unnamed and unelected CEO types wielding massive power behind the scenes. Already they are bankrolling our elections. This has reduced them to glitzy spectacle and third grade soundbites devoid of serious political thought or discussion. I hear the echos of WWE in a deluge of words like slammed, blasted and crushed. Maybe I'm missing out but I tend to skip over WWE-style headlines. Our politicians fall all over each other in a mad rush to get that undisclosed corporate cash. Those who don't are a tiny minority. Follow the money as the old saying goes. Sooner or later, it will lead to those who really run things. These are the people presidents and premiers address with sir as the first and last word. Large corporations already have armies of lawyers and lobbyists seeing to it things go their way. What is good for Wall Street and to hell with Main Street and any other street. And don't fuck with the Pentagon's money! We saw a rehearsal for a strongman style government under Trump. It reminded me of Russia's Putin. 

DOOR NUMBER 1 A Strongman / Woman government married to conglomerate power, Neofascism.

The Mercer family came in at the eleventh hour to rescue The Donald's failing 2016 run. Along with an abysmal campaign by Hilary Clinton, they got him in. In return they got massive tax cuts and pro-business judges all the way to the Supreme Court. Roe V. Wade is all the rage in so-called mainstream media outlets. Remember follow the money? Business cares about business- making money. Culture war issues are only window dressing to gloss over the real goal of profit maximization no matter who suffers. The strong man will in time only be a figurehead with little real power. There are several problems with this model, even for business types. A strong legal system for contract enforcement is hurt by exploding cronyism to win the strongman's favor. Another big problem is instability brought on when a successor must be found. Business needs stability to thrive. The US has had a pretty good run so far using democracy as a less messy way to pass power on.   

DOOR NUMBER 2. We become more democratic via more political parties. 

We are watching the destruction of the Republican Party unfold in real time. Everything Trump touches dies. A few Republicans are learning this but too late. I can see the party splintering into several different groups, religious, straight up fascist, and business interests. The Democrats are already there in all but name only. You have environmentalists, socialists and also business interests to name a few. Now we have the finest democracy money can buy. Our "pretend democracy" has a system for acceptable leadership succession that isn't found in strongman ran states. Maybe we will keep compliant leaders (managers?) like Joe Biden in place. Joe puts a sane (and more or less competent) face on global capitalism. He's only temporary. I'm not sure how much longer the Democrats can hold together. I think more political parties would be better. It would be a better and more honest representation of 300+ million people. And the next door? 

DOOR NUMBER 3.  Local Local and Local depending on climate change severity or other calamities.

The technology based future depends on stability. What about a world increasingly destabilized by climate change (or even a limited nuclear exchange), what does that look like a few decades from now? I'm thinking local, local and local. There may no longer be an international system of trade. We'll revert back to something like medieval Europe, more or less independent fortified cities in which life is a day to day struggle for most people. Most of our fancy toys like cars, computers and tv's will be gone (along with most rights and freedoms). James Howard Kunstler gives a fascinating look into this world in his books. Picture 1850's technology building on the ruins of the former United States in small villages, towns and larger kingdoms (for lack of a better word). At least horses make a comeback!           

A Door Number 4? Something unknown to us now. I hope it is closer to door number 2.