Pandemic Winter II and YOU

 So I went to my doc for a physical the other day. And as a part of it, she asked about my mental health / any feelings of depression. My answer was simple and direct, "It's 2022." I then assured her I was doing okay. But there are these weird feelings of dread, uncertainty with an undercurrent of fear all around. It's change, friends. The world is not ending or coming apart but it is changing. The last two, or so, years have seen very rapid change. We work differently than in 2019. Shopping is not the same (that one was on the way, covid just accelerated it). Big events, with lots of people, are more rare. Too many feel isolated and depressed stuck at home with only TV and an internet connection for company. Neither one often brings good news or warm fuzzies. Where is the money in that?  More often they pump in fear, outrage and division. Fortunately, suicide rates actually declined. Not all stressors act the same. Covid was like hitting the "PAUSE BUTTON. "Many started asking "is this where I want to be?" A common threat usually pulls people together and can bring out the best in us. 

One evening early on in the pandemic a random, older, African-American woman paid for my brother's groceries. My brother makes plenty of money and did not need the help. He then followed her to her car and implored her to let him pay her back. She was having none of it. She simply her up her hand and said, "It's not about that, it's about the love." My brother thanked her and she drove off leaving him a little choked up and inspired. May her act inspire you as well. It did me. Sure shutdowns suck but they give us a little space to think.   

"The Great Resignation" is a sign of people reevaluating what's important in life and not a sudden case of mass laziness. What about you? Are you where you want to be and like the direction you are moving in? You don't have to be in quarantine to ask yourself. Ask yourself before getting out of bed to start the day. This is when my mind is most clear and honest. You may be different, perhaps before you nod off? Do what works for you. Where you are now is the sum of your decisions to this point. Yes, there are things beyond our control (like pandemics) but how you react ALWAYS is a choice. You choose who to listen to. You choose to follow guidelines, recommendations and local ordinances or not. If not, how's that working out? You choose the food and drink to put into your body and how much or how little exercise to do. Despite what the TV says or you may read on line, you actually have a lot of power. I cannot say this too often, "Despair is your enemy's strongest weapon."            

The 2022 Roller Coaster!

 

Better buckle up! Looks like 2022 is going to be a wild ride. Wacky far right conservatives and Republicans  are hellbent on killing as many of their constituents as possible. The Supreme Court striking down Biden's mandate might be cool in the land of legal theorizing but out here in the world of flesh and blood human beings, it is a death sentence. Yes, in a perfect world there should be no need for mandates, I get it. But we live in a world that thinks a TV "reality" star makes a good president, a world that thinks a casual google search is as good as lifetimes of scientific study and a world that allows social media companies too silo us into self-reenforcing echo-chambers filled with anger and hate. Smart companies will still require employees to be vaccinated. We still have weeks to go in the omicron wave. But it will end sooner or later or become endemic permanent background noise. We can still make better choices unless one political party get's it's way.

I doubt the Democrats will pass voting rights protections- surprise, surprise! In a normal time this may have cost us the republic but these are not normal times. Between now and the mid-terms there will be 24-7 coverage of the 1/6/2020 Panel revelations. The party of law and order is no more. I'm interested to see where the money in politics goes over the next few months. Will big business complete their takeover of the Democratic Party or go all in on a fascist USA ran by incompetent Republicans only interested in more tax cuts and further deregulation? The short-term answer is with Republicans but the buyer's remorse will be a bitch. We may not get a do-over... So get it right this time. And the rest of the world keeps turning.

We will know very soon about Russia and Ukraine. Sanctions seldom (if ever?) are a deterrent to aggression.  But Vladi and company do like their money. Russia would do well to remember what the United States always forgets: wars are easy to start, are unpredictable and difficult to end. China looks on with hungry eyes toward Twain but here the deterrent is more tangible. The US 6th Fleet, the Japanese and Australian Navies are not forces to trifle with. Still, any war involving nuclear armed powers is... never a good idea. Never ending tensions in the Middle East are another minefield to navigate this year. Let's hope we can avoid any more military adventures anytime soon. There are many more conflicts going on around the world.                  

And there is always the wildcard, the big events we don't know of yet. Yes, 2022 is going to be wild. Even if things go bad, future better decisions can turn it around. Keep your sense of hope, a strong sense of humor and work for positive outcomes. Please don't be a Debbie downer hitting the rest of us with negative waves. Remember despair is the best weapon of your enemy!  

The Omicron Explosion

 

The omicron variant is one of the latest variants of Covid-19, the gift that just keeps on giving. While it is not as severe, it is much more contagious. So much more contagious, the death-toll will still remain high. I'm hopeful this will start to wind down by spring '22. But I'm only an English Major, not a doctor. Get your medical information from your doctor or maybe here. I like learning the science of the virus but there are far better articles, blogs and news sites for learning that. For this blog, I'm interested in all the social change that will come about as a result of Covid-19 and friends (variants). There are many and there will be more. 

Those who are able to work from home will mostly continue to do so after this is over. Why will business continue to pay for large, empty glass towers? The micromanagers of the world will want people back in the office. I can see a mix of going in a few days a week with being at home the rest of the time. The name of the game will be flexibility. People are tired of being treated as disposable robots. We see this in the great resignation. Companies that treated their employees well are faring better. Employees are starting to reassert their power. It is not just money. People want better benefits, more flexibility and a pleasant work culture. Companies that fail to recognize these changes will be at a competitive disadvantage. The longer the pandemic goes on, the more companies will require employees to get vaccinated. The longer illness times and death rates tell a truth all their own. Healthcare will be changed forever.

Massive burnout, overload and costs flying ever-upward will accelerate the demise of our healthcare system. I think we are witnessing in real time it's collapse. What will the bottom look like? Massive staffing shortages will lead to more errors, unnecessary deaths (stuff unrelated to covid) and longer and longer wait times. E-visits are here to stay but cannot possibly substitute for in person exams or emergencies. Hopefully, there will be massive reforms soon. And we, the end users, need to change as well. We need to take responsibility for our own health. Diabetes, heart disease, obesity all feed off of each other (ask your local paramedic to explain a human train wreck) and are too often a result of poor choices we make. Smoking, drinking and tasty junk food are enjoyable but come with a high cost to our bodies. Now that's getting into a whole different area beyond the scope of this blog and small post. Healthcare is a two way street. There are political concerns as well. 

It is no secret Republicans are dying of covid in much larger numbers than Democrats. Trump and company have created a monster they can no longer control. In close elections, yes, this will be the difference. They now know this. Hence, Trump pushing vaccines and getting booed. Being the party of anti-science, anti-common defense and anti any measure to combat covid will have a price. Will it be high enough to cause a change? We cannot tell yet. If the Democrats think, "Orange man and party bad" will keep them in power they too may in for a rude awakening. Inflation is up, people are tired of covid and our government seems incapable of making needed reforms and changes to help better people's lives. Right or wrong, people vote on how they feel. If the Democrats want to help save our democracy (the little that's left of it) and stay in power, they need to cancel student debit (reform how we pay for higher education as well), get a second infrastructure bill passed and for the LOVE OF GOD, protect voting rights. But Democrats being Democrats, I won't hold my breath. Biden seems okay but he's not bold. We need bold in these uncertain times. And if the strong man offers bold?? It may not end well.  

Last, there are what Rumsfeld called the unknown unknowns. 2022 and beyond will be a time of black swans, new dangers and rapid change. It will also be a time of opportunity, creativity and stunning advances in science. One thing is 100% certain, it will not be a boring time to be alive! Let's make good decisions with a longterm, bright future as the goal.                     

Short Memories

Those walking down the authoritarian / fascist road with Republicans and other extreme right groups have short historical memories. This leads to a very bad place for everyone. The vague, mythological past they want to somehow bring back does not exist. Remember the '50's? Yeah, sure the cars, early rock-n-roll and everything seemed more black and white. How easy we forget the conformity, deep racism and the growing specter of nuclear war that's with us to this very day. Our minds are selective about memories. It's easy to remember the good old days. The gambler remembers the few really big wins from by-gone poker games but easily forgets all the losses over years and years. Still, neoliberalism, the isolation of social media silos and hopelessness has made us easy targets for conmen repackaging fond mythological memories and selling them to us as a vision of a bright, hopeful future. I cannot think of a single example in history where this has ever worked out. Can you? I bet we both can come up with plenty of examples of where it has not. Fascism has thrived long past World War II with Uncle Sam's help. "As ye shall sew, ye shall reap." 

Can it happen here? Of course it can! It is already! Look around at all the dead and dying cities, the fruit of neoliberalism. People feel no longer actually represented by our government. The government of the people and by the people has been replaced by the government of the corporations for the corporations. This is not something new that happened one night a few weeks ago. It has been this way for well over a hundred years. There was a break in the usual pattern with FDR and the New Deal. It took the New Deal to save capitalism from itself. We find ourselves seventy plus years later living through another gilded age where the .1% only get richer and richer at the expense of everyone else. This is not sustainable but the powerful are still going to try. Watch what now passes for political discourse. Let's blame misfortune on everyone / anyone else but the powerful. But how? Note the never ending attacks on education and any form of critical thinking. Ignorance as a badge of honor is deeply troubling. Democracy cannot work without an educated population. We are moving into 2+2=5 territory where too many find hope and a false sense of safety in the strongman. Someone must SAVE us. This is what Trump realized that none of the others running for president did. He tapped into it and it worked just well enough for him to squeak by with an Electoral College victory. He turned out to be a wannabe, not near as savvy as say Putin in Russia. I still believe Trump and company were only a dress rehearsal for the competent strongman to come. Many are ringing the alarm but most of the Democrats are too invested in the status quo to make a stronger, better educated middle class. Joe is the sane, calming face on a brutal, insane system sleepwalking into authoritarian rule.  

So be on the lookout for that bright-eyed, cleaver and engaging politician who on the surface says all the right sounding things. But if you are brave enough to really listen, really says nothing. He will be good at pointing fingers, making absurdities into sound reasoning and political dissent into high treason. Armed mobs will be militias via executive order. There will be no defined plan or purpose only the glorious leader  endlessly pursing more and more power. His grand designs made easier via an unquestioning population. Fear the promise of a return to a bygone golden age. Watch out for ceaseless "Othering." And above all, never stop asking questions. When you can no longer question, then it will be too late...         

    

Thought Flash 1.6.2021

 

January 6, 2021 will be covered like the moon landings in the coming days, weeks and months. Here are a few of my thoughts a year later.

January 6, 2020 will be about the only thing Trump will be remembered for fifty years from now. It was a ham-fisted attempt to overthrow a free and fair election. Sixty lost court cases, the FBI, international observers and countless local election officials agree, Trump lost fair and square. Trump wanted to stay president to avoid jail. So he asked his most hardcore supporters to show up in DC promising "...it will be wild." They did and it was. I still not get my head around the thought process, "We'll overthrow the government and go back to work next Monday." Mitch McConnell, for once in his life, did something good. He certified the vote that night.

It hurt my mind too much to watch it unfold on live TV. "There is no way the mob can win here." I told myself. I thought there was no real plan but it now looks like there was. Like all things Trump, it was harebrained, seat-of-the-pants and doomed to failure. After a few hours and unnecessary injuries and deaths it fizzled out. Unknown to the rioters Uncle Sam had a contingency plan that could have turned the affair into a much larger bloodbath. Thank God that did not happen. Dead martyrs are good for growing movements. The monster Trump created, the MAGA crowd, still stalks the land, haunts the Republican Party and threatens what little is left of our Democracy.      

Most of those arrested will regret that day as they realize how bad felonies are for careers. There's no way back to January 5, 2021. Trump and his MAGA mob will destroy the Republican Party in the coming months and years. Policies based on fear and lies are doomed to failure sooner or later. But they will not go quietly. It is up to Democrats, Independents, Greens and sane Republicans out-vote, out-smart and out-work MAGA in 2022, 2024 and beyond. If we give up, we can still lose.   

Let's see where we are a year from now... 

Good News Number 4 Climate Change

Climate change is not going away. It is more like half good news. We may avoid the worst case scenarios. It is still going to hurt a lot of people and play a big role in how the next hundred years or so unfold. We are still going to have to deal with climate refugees, changing weather patterns, resource wars and unknowns. Hopefully, these things will not spin out of control. And if ignored, put us right back in a very bad place. I'm cautiously optimistic for a few reasons; youth awareness, cars, rising consumer awareness and even corporations getting onboard.  

The young people who stand to inherit the total mess of a world we have created are taking note and getting involved. It's all too easy for powerful people who run and profit from the status quo to shrug and think not my problem. They want to scare us into thinking solutions are not economically feasible, are too difficult or will not work. I think some people have misinterpreted Planet of The Humans as an attack on environmentalism and climate change solutions. It does point out some very real problems. I think the message is we need to change our behavior as consumers; less energy use, less stuff and less waste. I see this in young people basically disinterested in cars, buying big wasteful houses and career choices based on money alone. Young people are not going to just sit around and watch the planet become inhospitable to life as we know it. They are doing something about it. Will companies, and the rest of us follow their lead? 

The combustion engine is dying. Auto manufacturers are adding more and more electric vehicle options. There are more than thirty options here in 2022 for electric vehicles. They are not doing this for fun or to save the planet, they want to keep making money. More and more charging stations are being added all of the time. Vehicle ranges are getting longer and charging times shorter. But remember there's never a free ride. While it is good to cut down on gas / diesel emissions, making electric cars is resource intensive. What new problems will come from this? What will the impact be on the environment be? What new problems will come up by solving our emissions problem? Our recent track record is pretty bad but at least we are making an effort to improve things. 

Governments and big corporations are all (almost all) jumping on the Green Bandwagon! The Paris agreement and more recent climate talks in Scotland (COP26) fall well short of the problems but may be a starting point. Greta summed them up well, "blah, blah, blah." Can we get to a higher level with more decisive action? Maybe. People across the world see climate change as a threat and want action. Companies are falling all over each other getting out the message of how green they are. It is up to us to separate the green from the greenwash.    

There's no more time for kicking the can down the road. The negative effects of warming the Earth are here right now; December tornados, sinking islands, wild fires, floods and scorching summers. Clearly, something is not right. It is never too late to start making better decisions. We know how to get out of this mess but can we find the collective will? I think so. Living in a prison-like bunker on a dead planet is a real buzz killer, even for billionaires. 

Oh, and don't forget the role of agriculture in climate change. Industrial farming seems to get a free pass when their role in climate change is huge.       

Good News Number 3 The Economy

I learned something during my twenty years working in a state unemployment office, if you are the one who's unemployed, the economy is never doing good. For a leading economic indicator, open your wallet. I think this how we truly evaluate the economy, our own direct, lived experience. It is also how we vote. Wallet's full, keep the current group of clowns. Empty wallet? Toss 'em out! Now there's an extra ingredient, the pandemic we are trying to get out of. It's turning into what seems like a long slog. Turn on the news and the biggest economic news is the growing inflation. I think it's high demand vs. less supply and will smooth out over time as hopefully covid fades. But economics is not my field of study. I doubt our major media outlets are sitting around thinking of good news stories they can report on (they don't sell). It is always important to keep in mind what they are NOT telling us while focusing our attention on one thing. The economy is not all doom and gloom. 

Unemployment has dropped tremendously in the last year or so. According to this article, it is at a 50 year low. I take official unemployment measures with a healthy dose of salt. There are problems with unemployment numbers like not counting the underemployed or those who have just stopped looking for work. The official unemployment rate is not a perfect number but it is consistent over time. It is an indicator of how things are going. Healthcare, business services, and construction are all experiencing strong growth and so are hospitality and of course, trucking. Something else is happening, something good.

Wages are going up. Those complaining about lazy workers have forgotten a basic principal of capitalism, supply and demand. Workers finally have just a little power. They are no longer going back into demeaning, demoralizing and dehumanizing work that does not even pay their bills for cheap. We are seeing a reawakening labor movement as well. Walkouts, strikes and union drives are becoming more and more common. There is more at stake than just better pay. Employees want better conditions, better schedules and better benefits. Bluejean Friday will no longer cut it. Employers have to do better. A "worker shortage" means you have to pay more. It's really that simple. Now, the big question is will the gains be offset by inflation? How are other economic indicators looking? 

Well, the stock market is up, way up. Alone, this does not give much indication of average people's day to day experience in the lived economy. It seemed to be the only indicator Trump cared about and it is a measure. GDP growth was up last year and should continue to rise. It looks like corporate profits are rising to insane levels! New car sales are down due to chip shortages and lingering supply chain issues. The demand is there but the cars are not. The housing market is in a massive boom cycle right now. So the economic news is far from all bad. Does that mean everything is perfect? No. 

Income inequality is still growing out of control. There is a sizable authoritarian movement growing here and abroad that leads nowhere we want to be. The problem of nuclear weapons is lurking not far below the surface. And then there's climate change. It MAY not be as bad as we think but that's for next time. 2022 will be anything but boring!