Storm Warning- Thoughts on July 13 And What May Be Next...

 

The event in Pennsylvania on July 13th was one more act of political violence in a country with a long history of such events. There have been others before now; union busting, beatings, assassinations and one Civil War so far.  It is a pretty safe bet there will be more political violence between now and November and even beyond. Why?  I'm sure you can find all kinds of commentary on why this is happening. Let me give you my most simplistic and direct answer. Change. We as a country,  hell, the rest of the world,  are staring into the faces of a flood of complex, unclear and potentially civilization-ending changes. Climate Change, Artificial Intelligence, a growing number of nuclear armed powers and changing demographics are reshaping everything. Most people don't react well to changes. They are scary. Many want to retreat into a mythological past where life was more simple, the footing more solid and everything was clear. Our minds remember the good things and block out most of the bad. That's how we get the notion of the “good old days.” I'm not sure how good they were, but I know they are gone forever, fading further and further into the past. So what's coming next?

I don't know. That's a phrase I'm trying to get more comfortable with. In this so-called information age, we want answers and we want them yesterday. It is important to slow down and not get caught up in the endless hours and hours of mostly useless speculation. Quite often, first hand eyewitness accounts are proven to be wrong. What passes for photographic evidence is subject to interpretation as well. That interpretation takes time. Grand conspiracies draw more eyes than a simple oversight. I tend to lean toward the simplest explanation being the best explanation. After such a huge event,  I understand it may be days or longer before we get a clear picture of what happened, how it happened and why it happened. I also realize some of my questions may never be answered. Being patient today is a lost art. In the days, weeks and months ahead,  I implore you to remember our media and entertainment industries are profit driven. I think truth comes out eventually but only after a lot of hyperbole, bloviating from self-appointed opinion shapers and repetition of lies to try and make them true somehow. 

When you see something that just seems plain nuts or makes your blood boil, step down and step back. As Beau says, "Get informed, not inflamed.” If a news item seems particularly upsetting, you would do well to remember that's the intent. Check other sources, if you're reading this you have access to news outlets from literally all over the world. How are others reporting on the same event? News is a human endeavor, subject to errors and biases. If you really want to understand a story, look at it from several different sources. Most importantly, be patient.

All storms pass and this one is no exception. Personally,  I view threats of violence as a sign of great weakness. These intimidation tactics only work if we let  them.  Whatever you do, don't give into fear of your neighbor, the stranger next to you in line or anyone who seems different. Rather, recognize those who stoke fear and try to benefit from it, tune out and turn off. I think we are going to be okay but the pathway to the new normal, whatever that turns out to be, will be ugly and bumpy. Make space in your head for ambiguity, uncertainty and patience. We are all fighting battles we tell no one about. So be gentle with your neighbors, even those you disagree with. This too will pass, friends. 

"I'm Ridding with Biden" He's got this.

 

Biden has one bad debate in June, months and months before the election, and many on the left seem to be losing their damn minds! Hysterical conniptions abound,  Biden must bow out, he's too old, he's not fit for office and on and on and on sat on endless repeat.  I call BULLSHIT.  Yeah, his debate performance was poor, So what? I don't think that means the other guy, spewing lies the whole time, gets a win by default.  I'm sorry, but nothing Trump can say or do will make me want to vote for him. His only interest in the presidency is to stay out of jail, full stop. Oh, and an orgy of revenge on anyone who may have wronged the Donald in the past  is also on the agenda.  He has no plans on how to deal with climate change other than calling it a hoax.  That alone is enough for me not to vote for him. To deny climate change in 2024 is the height of insanity. But wait there's more! Trump has no plans to address the skyrocketing costs of housing and healthcare. He has little if any understanding of geopolitics, unless you consider  brown-nosing the world's worst dictators acceptable foreign policy. Trump offers nothing that would actually help the members of his cult-like base other than hurting those they don't like. If the Republicans were stupid enough to make him their nominee for 2024, I think it guarantees yet another loss. Here are five reasons why:

1. The overturning of Roe v Wade by itself has turned half our population against Trump and his band of enabling goons. Taking away people's rights is not exactly going to get you points in a popularity contest. It's more than just abortion, they want to take away access to contraception in general. When put to a vote, even in deep red states, people vote to protect reproductive rights and freedoms. A Republican win in November will mean it's only a matter of time before there's a nationwide abortion ban. Our current insane Supreme Court should not be trying to reverse rights that have already been fought for and won. I think women will come out to vote in unprecedented numbers against the Republican Party.
   
   

2. Another surefire losing strategy the Republicans have is climate change denial in 2024. Pretending a problem does not exist does nothing to resolve it, much less make it go away. We are living through climate change now! Numerous fires, floods, extreme heat waves and a category 5 hurricane in June are all neon flashing warning signs of things to come. Electric cars may not be the answer but at least they are a small attempt to address the issue. Personally,  I think our only chance to avoid climate-induced catastrophes is a complete rethink on our relationship to nature but that's for another time. Addressing climate change is important to younger voters. They know we are out of time. There's another issue young voters are interested in.
   
   

3. Gun control!  Republican notions of thoughts and prayers, arm the teachers (an absolute absurdity) and good guys with guns stopping bad guys with guns (yes, another absurdity) do nothing to address our national epidemic of mass shootings, including mass school shootings. In short, they will do anything to avoid solving the problem. Gun makers and ammunition manufacturers have completely bought off the Republican Party. Republicans hide behind a mythological reverence for the Second Amendment putting the  unmitigated right to own deadly firearms above the lives of our students and fellow citizens. I mean really, who in the hell needs an AK-47 or AR-15 to defend their home? You guessed it, another absurdity! I think this issue will bring numerous young people to the polls this November.
   
   

4. Trump's inability to attract so-called independent voters will also lead to his defeat. Let's remember Trump doesn't even have all of the Republican Party. 34 felony convictions are not going to win over independent-minded voters. Trump's incessant whining about the 2020 election also does little to attract new voters. His rabid base  will certainly come out to vote for him but alone they are nowhere near enough. Few people really want to live in a fascist state with Christian window dressing. (See Project 2025) I think Trump knows this and seeks a path to the White House via the House of Representatives and or the Supreme Court. And speaking of the Supreme Court.
   
   

5.  The horrible presidential immunity ruling handed down on July 1st 2024 will be another nail in the coffin of Trump and Trumpism. If allowed to stand indefinitely, this obliterates the Constitution.  I thought we had resolved the notion of rulers not being above the law almost a thousand years ago via the Magna Carta. It seems our Supreme Court has other ideas. Great! Now we get to argue over what constitutes official acts and duties of the president. So it seems paying off pornstars, ignoring deadly viruses and ordering the disappearances of political rivals are now little more than presidential duties or acts. The current Supreme Court is far more radical than most Americans want. The only way to change it is to have someone who will appoint non-radical right members to the bench. We have got to have a more balanced Supreme Court.
   
   

   Let's face it, Biden is weak despite his numerous successes,  The American Rescue Plan,  The Chips Act,  Build Back Better, a $1.2 Trillion Dollar Infrastructure Bill and a reinvigorated NATO. His perceived weakness I think comes from the fact he doesn't look good on TV. He comes across as old and slow.  We would do well to remember the presidency is a branch of government staffed by numerous people. Nobody can be an expert in all areas. Biden surrounds himself with qualified experts, not lackeys and sycophants. Sure, he's slower than he was 20 or 30 years ago but overall I think his judgment is still sound. That does not mean I agree with every decision he's made, mainly around Israel and Gaza. I shudder to think what a second Trump term would mean for that part of the world. A second Trump term  would be an unmitigated disaster here at home as well as for the rest of the world. Oh, here are a few more reasons I don't think it will happen.

6. Turning over the RNC to unqualified family members who then vacuum up most of the money to cover Trump's ever growing mountain of legal bills hurts Republicans’ chances to retake The House and Senate. Without which they cannot enact the radical rights wet dream known as Project 2025.

7. A king operating above the law overseeing America as an Evangelical Christian Nation is a hard pass for most of us. The lunatics who want to bring this about think they can control Trump. Now I ask you, when has this ever worked out? It's the Democrats job to let the world know about Project 2025 and how Trump ties into it.
   
   Despite everything I've said here Democrats and those who lean further left like me, need to think of this as the final Super Bowl and our team is down 28 to 14 in the fourth quarter. Yes, electoral politics feels lame and the two major parties have too many similarities to matter. I think there used to be an element of truth to this when we were talking about Democrats and Republicans. That's no longer the case. Under Trump, the Republican Party has gone fascist with an unhealthy mix of Evangelical Christianity thrown in. That's not a mix I want to contemplate nor a country I want to live in. We cannot get this one wrong.

P. S. If Trump somehow does win, the sun will still rise,  the Earth will still spin and we will resist…  

Conflicts Around The World, June 2024

 

The war in Ukraine, Israel's invasion of Gaza and China's saber rattling around Taiwan are covered daily in the Press here in the USA. There are a number of other deeply disturbing and horrific conflicts going on around the world as we speak that get little media attention. A simple Google search quickly produced the list below. There are numerous other conflicts as well. Let's keep them in mind as our government and media tends to focus on the three listed above while pretty much ignoring the rest. 

Civil War in Sudan

The civil war in Myanmar: No end in sight

Mexico’s Long War: Drugs, Crime, and the Cartels

UN Haiti chief warns of 'catastrophic' impact of gang war displacements

DRC conflict: Why is fighting intensifying and can it threaten regional stability?

American Unpeople

 The Working Poor / The Price of The American Dream

This is a documentary about the working poor in America. It is almost an hour long. The hourly rate may vary from state to state. (Some states are far more expensive than others.)  Here in North Carolina, I think of the people earning anywhere from minimum wage up to around $20 per hour when I think of the working poor. I base my numbers on the 20 years I worked for the Employment Security Commission of North Carolina. These are people who truly live paycheck to paycheck. Even a small disruption can cause a $20 crisis. 

The documentary follows a worker in fast food customer service, Germania, a construction laborer, Joe, and some high skilled union workers who found themselves facing a permanent layoff. I think it does a pretty good job of depicting their struggles. but what compelled me to write today is all they left out. Germania and Joe are both homeless on opposite sides of the country. Not only that, they have families to support. Joe is married and has a little daughter. Germania  has several children and a relative to support.  We will come to the union workers later.

Germania  had a decent paying job  in an unnamed northern state but nonetheless decided to move to Florida.  The only reason given in the documentary is that she wanted a “new start.” The father of her children is not really mentioned and plays no part in their lives it seems. Perhaps she was fleeing a domestic violence situation,  living in a bad area  or something else?  I am not here to judge why she left.  I'm more interested in the other problems she faces. I see several. At only 25 she is already obese  and a smoker.  If nothing changes, she may be looking at a myriad of related health problems, things such as heart disease, a higher risk for strokes and different types of cancer. Now, add to this our lovely for profit healthcare system. She works 2 to 3 different jobs, none of which are likely to provide decent healthcare insurance coverage.  Her children are also overweight. I don't say this to be mean or judgmental but to remind everyone of the relationship between poverty and obesity.  I think Germania  is truly doing the best she can.  She is stuck on a metaphorical hamster wheel. Between her jobs and caring for her children, she has little time to look for a better job much less get some kind of retraining for higher paying work.  A few other things I think the documentary left out  are the risks associated with living in cheap motels  and subsidized apartments,  the potential for violent crime and exposure to illicit drugs. Let's also not forget poorer performing schools and lack of access to good daycare  for her children. If things are left unchanged, I think it's possible the cycle will just repeat.  Joe finds himself in a similar situation in Seattle, Washington.

The documentary does not give us a good idea of Joe's marketable skill sets.  I may be wrong but I assume he is more of a cleanup and laborer type then a highly skilled carpenter or mason.  His wife has similar skills  to Germania but is also unable to find any work. They have a small daughter who is just beginning to walk. They find themselves living in a small tent city and there is no explanation given for how they pay for food. I would assume it's charity. They both could use training for a better job. This is still very difficult even if the training is paid for. They still have to pay for food as well as daycare for their daughter. The only reason given for their relocation from California to Washington State  is seeking better opportunities. Joe's physical work has kept him from becoming obese.  Both his wife and daughter are overweight. Again, I don't see this to be mean or judgmental but to point it out as a consequence of deep poverty. Neither seems to have a drug problem and there is no mention of a criminal background which can both be large barriers to employment.  However, not having a stable address to put on an application is seen by many employers as a huge red flag. Based on the documentary, I assume neither one has a driver's license. That's another barrier to employment. Again, a possible solution is job retraining but they still have to pay for housing, food and other living expenses while going through said training. What about the skilled workers facing a permanent layoff?

The last segment of our documentary follows several skilled union workers in Pennsylvania  who are facing permanent layoffs  from well-paying jobs. I don't mean to be harsh but multinational conglomerations are not noted for caring about their workers. These massive corporations are legally bound to maximize profits for their shareholders. If cutting labor costs increases profits, that's what they will do. I think it's safe to assume there are no other employers in their area who need these skill sets.  Unlike Joe and Germania,  The union workers may have a little time for a job retraining via their severance. The question is, training for what? Without  similar wages they too will fall out of the middle class. Maybe there is another well paying employer in the area who can take them on with just a little retraining?

What are some possible answers?

One answer is a minimum wage that actually keeps up with what it costs to live. Since this documentary was made a few years ago, wages have gone up some. Also, the cost of living has gone up. one thing to keep in mind is the baby boomer generation is in the process of retiring out of the workforce. Soon there will be more jobs than there are people to fill them. This should help push wages up even more. Job retraining is great but there needs to be a mechanism for helping people cover basic living expenses while they are being retrained. Another idea I would like to hear more about is guaranteed employment.  Instead of collecting unemployment checks, the government becomes the employer of last resort. They also have to pay enough so people can live in a safe and healthy environment. Maybe in some cases tie this into employment training.

 Employers need to also do their part.  creating an entire underclass not only leads to people who cannot afford your products but to an unstable society which is also very bad for business.  companies need to face a cost or laying off high skilled workers only to increase profits.  Maybe one can justify laying people off in a major downturn to keep the company afloat but that's a debate on a case by case basis. Companies would do well to remember how expensive high turnover can be.  Paying people well can indeed help the bottom line grow.

 We as individuals also have a role to play. I think the best way to stay out of poverty is to have high demand, high paying, marketable skills.  It's no longer as simple as going and getting “the right degree.”  We live in a time of rapid change. So the best thing to do is always be learning and paying close attention to what's going on in the economy around us.  Financial literacy, economics and where to get new skills training should all be taught in high school.  Of course it's okay to want a new start or seek better opportunities elsewhere but please do the homework that goes with  these ideas.  use the internet and find out what really is available in the place you want to go as well as pay rates and the cost of living. Yes, it's fun to entertain the idea of up and leaving but be smart about it.

The Education Grift

 

 The profit motive works great for many things but not everything. I don't think it does all that well in justice administration. Just consider the horrors of our national prison industrial complex. I'm not a fan of mixing the profit motive with state functions in general. K-12 education is another area I don't think mixes well with the profit motive. This will be our focus here. Foundational education is a right enshrined in many state constitutions. This is true here in North Carolina where I live.  Whether you get a good education or not should not be dependent on your family's bank account. 

 A lot of money for education comes from local taxes. If corporations are getting this money via private schools, the profit motive has to override all other concerns. Corporations’ primary purpose is making money for shareholders full stop. (We will get to religious schools soon.) It invites corruption locally, at the state level, and federally. Measuring sticks can be manipulated, changed or simply ignored. Can we really trust corporate entities to teach about alternative economic systems, abuse of labor and other corporate crimes such as the massive fraud at Enron? Privatizing schools can also take away control from teachers and other education professionals.

If a company develops the lesson plans and how they are actually taught, what is left for the teacher to do? The role of teacher becomes little more than a proctor or guide. If a student finds an error or has a disagreement about something being taught who can they go to? It is no longer the teacher. I guess they have to take it up with some form of customer service? Businesses managing education hurts educators as well as students. Adding religion to the mix throws in an additional set of problems.

Yes, I have a problem with any school that does not want to teach evolution in 2023. There is a line somewhere separating education from indoctrination. I have questions about religious schools. How can I be sure they are not teaching religious intolerance? How can I be sure they are not dehumanizing others with different views such as atheists or followers of other faiths? How can I be sure they are not discouraging freedom of thought? In my experience, religion is not exactly open to questioning. I feel education should be the opposite- question everything! They are not all bad. 

Sure, we can still have private religious schools. I'm sure there are many that do well! Catholic and Jewish high schools can provide a great education. If you got tons of money and want a private or religious education for your children, great. Please do your homework on what they will teach first. They should not try to replace a good public education system. One last point.        

Kids don't belong to parents. They are individual human beings with agency. They need to be able to have a say in what and how they are learning, not controlled by corporate or religious institutions. Democracy depends on having a well educated populace. The idea of any politician loving the “uneducated” should be terrifying in a Democracy. 

SUPPORT YOUR LOCAL PUBLIC SCHOOLS! 

How do We End the Cult of Trump?

 

I don't know of any other way to describe Trump 's hold on his base other than a cult. He can do no wrong in their eyes. Things that would be an absolute outrage for any other politician, doesn't phase his base. Stealing, extramarital affairs, possible treason, along with a myriad of other serious allegations of misconduct would have sunk anyone else years ago! But not Trump. Daily he moans about all the injustice he is facing while at the same time demonstrating contempt for the rule of law and how our Constitution. The thought of him winning a second term should be utterly terrifying. Sure, it's a long shot given all of his legal entanglements. But the more we learn about January 6 and his ever increasing sense of desperation, we need to understand there is nothing he will not do if he thinks that will win him the presidency again. The idea of free and fair elections I think are still facing danger. We cannot take the risk lightly as long as there is any chance of a second Trump term. How can this end?

 

There is no quick fix for ending a cult. Well, there may be one- the cult leaders death. We simply cannot count on that. Trump has access to the best health care in the world. I see two possible good ways this ends and one bad. The bad obviously, he somehow someway becomes president again. If you disagree with this, congratulations! You are in the cult of Trump! My best hope is for the slow wheels of American justice to catch up well before the election next November. Trump in jail and out of the news will lead to his cult quietly fading away overtime. The MAGA hats, T-shirts along with the rest of the merchandise from Trump world will find their way into storage in attics in basements along with the Klan and militia merchandise. Better yet, much of it will find its way into city dumps. There is another contributing factor to the end of the trump cult.

 

Young people are not buying it. They understand the very real threat we all face from climate change. They are not going to vote for a party of climate change deniers. Nor are they going to vote for a party that obstructs even the smallest attempt at college loan debt relief. Young people are far more open to the LGBT community. They will not vote for a party that scapegoats gays and other minorities. Correct me if I'm wrong, but I also don't think they will vote for the pro shooter drills party. I don't know exactly what the answer is, but I'm certain doing absolutely nothing is not it. I have yet to hear any plan the MAGA Faction has to address the skyrocketing costs of housing. Nor have I heard a word from the few remaining sane elements in the Republican Party. They have devolved from a party with a few ideas into mostly a cult of personality led by Donald Trump. They propose wacky changes to solve imaginary problems of their own creation such as “woke.” The Donald himself is utterly devoid of solutions to actual problems. His focus on 2024 is mostly a grift and a hail Mary pass to avoid jail. I have yet to see a single thing that points in another direction. So, yes this cult too shall pass. What can be done at the individual level?

 

Calling people names, avoiding the discussion of politics and trying to wait it out are not great solutions when it comes to friends and family stuck in the cult of Trump. What's needed is humility and patience. The "I'm right and you are wrong" approach will not work. One thing that does work is honest questioning. Things like what has he done to improve your life? How has he helped the economy? What does the rest of the world think of him? There are many more such questions. The goal is to get the person to think beyond the level of catchy slogans and macho imagery. You don't have to try and answer these questions for them. The questions will plant a seed. Hopefully, they will start to have their own questions. When and if they emerge from the cult of Trump don't gloat or make fun of them. We have all been deceived at some point or other. It's important to remember we need at least two functioning political parties for a democracy. 

A dominant Democratic Party will soon fall into corruption and holding power for power's own sake. Our long term goal should be the revitalization of a functional Republican Party with ideas and goals for the coming decades instead of a party looking for answers in a mythological past.

Climate Change Challenge? It is Us?

More and more people are coming to understand the reality of climate change. I think I like the phrase climate change better than global warming. Somehow, it just seems more self-evident. I understand climate change is being driven by warmer global temperatures. All the dire predictions from decades past are now starting to come true. If you don't believe me, perhaps just watch the Evening News? I have a really bad feeling Mother Nature is just getting started. Storms are going to become more violent, more frequent, and more unusual. So-called thousand-year storms will simply become spring or summer, nothing too unusual. None of this is new. We've known this was going to happen at least since the 1960s. Some may argue much longer ago than that. Here's a simple question - is there really no cost the pollution we are pumping into the atmosphere 24 hours a day 365 days a year? Let's not forget about our relentless clear cutting of forests in addition to all the dirty energy. The easy energy we've had for the last 100 plus years comes with a steep price tag. Can we fix it?

 

I don't think so. The radical deep changes required to mitigate this threat are far beyond what are so-called leadership is capable of. Too many of us want to have our cake and eat it too. We want others to sacrifice, not us. You people in the third world have less kids. No, you Chinese cannot have the middle-class lifestyle that we enjoy. No, you cannot use coal to heat your homes in winter. Too bad you don't have enough wind or solar to stay warm. Am I willing to give up my nice house, car and much of the power I use? Probably not. How many other Americans feel the same way I do? Almost half of us don't recognize a problem unless it affects us directly. The other half want to do the right thing until it becomes inconvenient or affects property values. I'm looking at you California, yeah homelessness sucks but I don't want affordable housing anywhere near me. I'm sure this is not limited to California. Any well off zip code has little interest in really helping the homeless. OK I'm digressing. Let me get back on track.

 

Another reason I don't think we can fix climate change has to do with math. Solar, wind, and hydropower are indeed making great strides. The problem is the gulf between what these can actually produce and what we actually need. The cake eaters want to wave a magic technology wand at the problem and make it go away. Bam! Problem solved and I didn't have to do anything! If we can figure out how to store electricity for long periods of time, maybe that will change the equation. Once again, the magical technology wand appears! That's great if it works one day but simply hoping some technological marvel will save us from the ravages of climate change, I think is wishful thinking. I'm leery of magical technological solutions and unproven financial solutions such as carbon taxes. And plain old-fashioned corruption is always present. Paying to pollute does not seem like a great solution. Even trying to offset pollution by doing something quote “green” seems fishy to me.

 

Another problem we face in regards to climate change is international disunity. Even here in the West far too many people don't understand the gravity of the situation we face. Their wallets make understanding impossible. One of America's two political parties, the republicans, simply refuse to acknowledge the facts of climate change. The Democrats may be a little better but don't want to do anything that would be too upsetting to the average voter. They are afraid to ask for real change, perhaps understandably so. That's just the USA. The Europeans may be a little better at developing green energy and moving in the right direction. Make no mistake, there is a lot of creative accounting going on there as well. China is still largely dependent on coal and oil for their energy. Russia is still dependent on fossil fuels. Africa, South America and the Middle East all rely on fossil fuels not only for energy but income as well. The UN is far too weak to lead such a change. The United States may be able to lead such a change but that's going to be difficult with half the population refusing to recognize the problem and many of the other half in the “don't inconvenience me” camp.

 

Sorry to sound so bleak. The near term is bleak, let's face it. But as time goes by storms get worse, fires get more outrageous, heat waves more common, blizzards more severe; skepticism will change to what can we do? The question is will we figure it out and act accordingly in time to prevent the most catastrophic effects of climate change. The deniers are slowly coming around. We are already seeing wars related to climate change, climate change refugees and islands literally sinking into the rising ocean. The deniers are finding their position increasingly untenable. We will have to find solutions that spread sacrifice equitably around the world. Yes, technological solutions will have a role to play but the bigger thing I think we'll be us as individuals learning how to get by without wasting so much energy. We can and will learn how to live within Earth's limits.